Water Crux MageTier 3
at 北部地區賽
decks
1
(1.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.6%
avg ELO -2.7 per match
expected value
38.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1203
· median 1203
· range 1203–1203
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
975
Q1 1166
Q3 1363
1591
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 27.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 26.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Allies | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
